Alerts

   Denise Joaquin

August 09, 2024. Reiterate HOLD. We reiterate our HOLD rating on EMI with an FV estimate of Php14.2/sh. While we like EMI for its strong track record of profitability and its prospects in its fast growing whisky space, we think the stock is already fairly valued at its current price

   Paolo Miguel Manansala

August 09, 2024. Estimates under review, following 2Q24 performance. In light of recent earnings, we will be reviewing our estimates. We currently have a BUY rating on CEB with an FV of Php58.4/sh.

   Richard Lañeda, CFA

August 09, 2024. Maintain BUY with FV estimate of Php3.47. We maintain our BUY rating on MEG given its robust residential segment and recovering malls and hotels. Its office segment remains a steady source of income and a strong anchor of the company’s value despite industry challenges. Shares of MEG are attractively valued, it is trading 49% below our fair value estimate.

   George Ching

August 09, 2024. Downgrading to HOLD rating. After factoring in the 129MW Stockyard Wind and the 132MW Maharashtra Wind Projects into our estimates we are raising our FV estimate for ACEN by 1.7% to Php5.90/sh. We are downgrading our rating on ACEN from BUY to HOLD. We continue to like ACEN given the rapid growth of its power generation portfolio and its focus on renewable energy. From ~4,800MW currently, a total of 1,900MW of projects are expected to be completed by 2025. However, the share price of ACEN has appreciated by 26% in the YTD period following the company’s continued capacity expansion and in light of the recent increase in WESM prices. At its current price of Php5.50/sh, upside to our FV estimate is limited at only 7.25%.

   Richard Lañeda, CFA

August 08, 2024. Maintain BUY with FV estimate of Php40.50. We maintain our BUY rating on ALI with a fair value estimate of Php40.50. Residential revenues have improved since 4Q23 and looks to be sustainable. Meanwhile, take-up sales were robust in 1H24 despite the high-interest rate environment as interest rate cuts have been elusive owing to stubborn US inflation. ALI seems to be the least affected by higher interest rates as their more affluent buyers are the least dependent on bank loans. Meanwhile, the malls segment remains robust, and the office leasing segment continues to improve despite a difficult operating environment. Overall, we how ALI has performed during this challenging period and will be the main beneficiary once interest rates ease.

   Denise Joaquin

August 08, 2024. Reiterate HOLD. While we continue to like CNPF for its strong brand equity, stable track record of sales and earnings growth, and long-term prospects for its emerging categories, we maintain our HOLD rating on the stock due to current valuations. We believe the stock is already fairly valued as it is trading above our FV estimate of Php31.0/sh. We recommend accumulating closer to our buy below level.

   Denise Joaquin

August 08, 2024. Reiterate BUY. We reiterate our BUY rating on MONDE with FV estimate of Php13.0/sh. We expect steady topline growth and continued GPM gains to drive its core branded business. Additionally, we believe that sentiment on the stock has largely turned around as concerns over further impairment losses for MAB and dividend payment risks may be addressed by MONDE’s 10-year risk reduction plan, which will provide retained earnings protection for the listco at the equity level.

   Richard Lañeda, CFA

August 08, 2024. HOLD with FV estimate of Php1,021. We continue to be cautious on SM Retail as the recovery in revenues has not yet resulted in a recovery in net income. Meanwhile, SMPH, although has a very strong leasing business, is currently going through some challenges in its residential development business. The banks continue to be a bright spot for SM with growing loan book and expanding net profit margins translating to high returns on equity. Overall, we still like SM’s for its track record and for being the leader in retail, banking, and malls. However given than our fair value estimate of Php1,021 presents limited upside from the current price, we maintain our HOLD rating on SM.

   George Ching

August 08, 2024. Maintaining HOLD rating. In light of the reduction in our earnings forecast, we are cutting our FV estimate for NIKL by 11.6% to Php5.08/sh. We remain positive on the long term outlook for nickel due to the rising EV battery demand. Furthermore, we believe that NIKL’s expansion of its RE power generation business comes at an opportune time given the strong cash flow generation of its nickel mining business, as well as the tightening of power supply in the country. However, we believe that near term outlook for nickel price will continue to be challenging given the slowdown in China’s economic growth. At its current price of Php4.02/sh, upside to our FV estimate is at 54%.

   Charmaine Co

August 07, 2024. Maintain HOLD. We currently have a HOLD rating on UBP, with a FV estimate of Php42.4/sh, based on 1.0x 2024E P/B ex-goodwill (or 0.72x 2024E P/B inclusive of goodwill). While we continue to expect growth in UBP’s lending business as it pursues cross-sell opportunities within its client base and taps into underserved markets, its NPL ratio has been steadily rising quarter after quarter. We expect that the build-up of provisions to cover unexpected losses from riskier assets will continue to weigh on earnings growth.