Alerts

   Carlos Matthew De Leon

November 17, 2023. We are maintaining our BUY rating on MWC with a FV estimate of Php25.5/sh. We think the recent completion of the rate rebasing exercise should provide greater visibility on the company’s earnings and outlook. At current prices, upside to our FV is significant at 49.1%.

   Carlos Matthew De Leon

November 17, 2023. Given the details of TEL’s 3Q23 performance, we reduced our service revenue forecast by 2.1% for FY23 and by 2.6% for FY24. We also cut our depreciation expense and cash expense estimates by 2.0% and 3.9%, respectively. Our lower expense forecast more than offset the reduction in revenues, allowing our FY23E telco core income forecast to increase by 1.8% from Php31.8Bil to Php32.4Bil. Despite the increase in our core income forecast, our FV estimate fell slightly to Php1,690 from Php1,760 since one of the reasons for the increase in our earnings forecast is a reduction in a non-cash expense. Nevertheless, we maintain our BUY rating on TEL. We continue to like TEL being a defensive play amidst the heightened risks facing the local economy. The stock also provides high dividends which we believe are sustainable in the medium-term. Given current prices, we estimate FY24E dividend yield to be at 7.6%.

   Richard Lañeda, CFA

November 17, 2023. We maintain our BUY rating on AGI as shares are currently very undervalued. It is trading at a steep 31.65% discount to our FV estimate, which is based on a 25% discount to our NAV estimate of Php26.96.

   Denise Joaquin

November 16, 2023. Estimates under review. We will be reviewing our estimates on HOME given the weaker-than-expected results. Currently, we have a BUY rating on the stock with an FV estimate of Php3.6/sh.

   Carlos Matthew De Leon

November 16, 2023. We currently have a BUY rating on the stock with an FV estimate of Php57.3/sh. We view that CEB is positioned to benefit from the continued recovery of international travel and continued growth of the economy. Key risks however include (1) fuel price volatility amid OPEC+ production cuts, (2) sharp depreciation of the peso, and (3) larger-than-expected number of aircraft grounded amid the Pratt and Whitney issue. At current prices, the upside to our FV is significant at 75%.

   Charles William Ang, CFA

November 15, 2023. We currently have a BUY rating on GTCAP with an FV estimate of Php950/sh. We continue to like GTCAP given its attractive portfolio of assets. TMP continues to benefit from the recovery of its margins while MBT benefits from the continued growth of its net interest income. At its current price of Php548/sh, it is trading at just 4.5X 2023 earnings (or 5.1X if excluding the gains from lot sales), significantly below its historical average P/E of 11X. Current discount to NAV also remains near historical high at 54%.

   Denise Joaquin

November 15, 2023. We reiterate our BUY rating on URC with an FV estimate of Php150/sh. We continue to like the company for its strong core branded businesses where it has continued to hold its market leadership position in several consumer goods categories. Moreover, we expect bottomline growth to be supported by margin recovery given softer lock-in costs for key inputs (e.g. wheat, palm oil) and structural cost improvements undertaken by URC. Nonetheless, we also expect that the potential tax on snack foods and higher taxes on sugar-sweetened drinks being proposed by the DoF could cause some overhang on the stock in the near-term.

   George Ching

November 14, 2023. We have a BUY rating on FPH with a FV estimate of Php157/sh. We are maintaining our BUY rating on FPH. Given FPH’s 68% ownership in FGEN, we view FPH as a cheaper way to own FGEN. FPH is trading at a huge 50.5% discount to its market based NAV of Php126/sh. Based on FPH’s market price of Php62.4/sh, upside to our FV estimate is significant at 151%.

   Denise Joaquin

November 13, 2023. CNPF’s share price is currently up ~11% YTD following its off-cycle index inclusion. While we continue to like CNPF for its strong brand equity and long-term prospects for its emerging categories, we are downgrading our recommendation on CNPF to HOLD given the limited upside to our FV estimate of Php28.0/sh. We recommend accumulating closer to our buy below price of Php24.3/sh.

   George Ching

November 13, 2023. We have a BUY rating on FGEN with a FV estimate of Php31.85/sh. We continue like FGEN given its relatively stable cash flow since bulk of its capacity is contracted. Furthermore, with the Department of Energy’s moratorium on new coal power plants, this could potentially push forward the projected power shortage beginning in 2024, increase in the competitiveness of FGEN’s gas and renewables plants, and improve the feasibility of FGEN’s LNG regasification project which will enable its gas plants to remain viable after the depletion of the Malampaya gas field. At FGEN’s market price of Php18.20/sh., upside to our FV estimate is at 75%.