Alerts

   Frances Rolfa Nicolas

June 06, 2023. Following the sharp increase in PCOR’s stock price over the past week, we are downgrading our recommendation to HOLD as the stock is trading above our fair value estimate of Php3.50/sh. We think that the looming global recession may lead to persisting margin pressures as it will likely negative impact crude prices and refining margins. Nevertheless, this will be partially cushioned as the company benefits from further easing of restrictions and general increase in mobility.

   Denise Joaquin

June 02, 2023. We reiterate our BUY rating on COSCO with an FV estimate of Php12.6/sh. COSCO remains severely undervalued, with the market not valuing its other businesses (apart from PGOLD) like the fast-growing liquor business, in our view.

   Denise Joaquin

June 01, 2023. After factoring in our adjustments, our FV estimate decreased to Php9.3/sh from Php11.4/sh previously. Despite the cut in our estimates, we maintain our BUY rating on DNL. We continue to like DNL as it remains in a prime position to capitalize of the reopening of the economy. The recovery of overall business activity should also result in a more favorable sales mix for DNL and drive margin expansion over the long-term. At its current price, upside potential to our FV estimate remains significant at 34.6%. We estimate that DNL is trading at 16.7X 2023E P/E, below the median 20.0X of peers.

   George Ching

June 01, 2023. In light of the reduction in our LME price estimate, we are lowering our 2023E net income forecast by 9.3% to Php10.1Bil, and our 2024E forecast by 9% to Php11.2Bil. We are also lowering our FV estimate on NIKL by 6% to Php7.70/sh. We are maintaining our BUY rating on NIKL. We continue to like NIKL as we remain positive on the long term outlook for nickel due to the rising EV battery demand. Furthermore, we believe that NIKL’s expansion of its RE power generation business comes at an opportune time given the strong cash flow generation of its nickel mining business, as well as the tightening of power supply in the country. At its current price of Php6.03/sh, upside to our FV estimate is significant at 27.5%.

   Denise Joaquin

May 29, 2023. We reiterate our BUY rating on PGOLD with an FV estimate of Php55.7/sh. We continue to like PGOLD as it remains well-positioned to capitalize on improving mobility trends despite near term inflationary headwinds. We also like PGOLD for its differentiated focus of middle to low-income class consumers through Puregold while it competes in the premium segment through S&R. Moreover, valuations remain attractive as the stock is trading at 8.9X 2023E P/E, below its historical 5-year average of 14.4X.

   Denise Joaquin

Maintaining BUY rating- May 29, 2023 We currently have a BUY rating on HOME with an FV estimate of Php6.0/sh and will be reviewing our estimates in light of the weaker-than-expected results.

   Frances Rolfa Nicolas

May 26, 2023. We are maintaining our BUY rating on MWC with a FV estimate of Php25.5/sh. We think the recent completion of the rate rebasing exercise should provide greater visibility on the company’s earnings and outlook. At current prices, upside to our FV is significant at 35%.

   Carlos Matthew De Leon

Maintaining BUY rating- May 24, 2023 Given the first quarter results, we are maintaining our BUY rating on JFC with a FV estimate of Php293/sh. We expect continued growth as the local economy remains strong and as key segments such as China recover. On the other hand, likely headwinds could come from softer demand in North America and elevated costs. At current prices, JFC is trading at 31x earnings, below its historical average of 37x.

   Carlos Matthew De Leon

May 24, 2023. We are maintaining our BUY rating on MAXS with a FV estimate of Php9.80/sh. Moving forward, we expect topline to pick up in the upcoming quarters as the first quarter is seasonally weaker. Coupled with revenues growth, we expect margins gradually improving on the back of operating leverage and normalizing cost pressures.

   Denise Joaquin

Realigning estimates; maintain BUY rating- May 23, 2023 We are fine-tuning our earnings estimates as we factor in the expected restructuring of the UK MAB and partial prepayment of debt under MNUKL. We also lowered our topline forecasts for MAB, which translate to a 4.5% CAGR from 2022-2027E. As a result, our net income forecasts declined by 10% for FY23 and 6.9% for FY24 and our FV estimate marginally decreased to Php10.6/sh. Despite the cut in our estimates, we maintain our BUY rating on MONDE. We continue to like the company for its strong core APAC BFB business, where it continues to hold its market leadership position across several consumer food categories (such as noodles, biscuits, oyster sauce, and yogurt drinks). At its current price, upside to our FV estimate is also significant at 23.7%. Hence, we believe that the share price weakness arising from its upcoming deletion could be viewed as an opportunity to accumulate the stock.