Alerts

   Charles William Ang, CFA

March 31, 2025. Reiterating BUY rating. We currently have a BUY rating on GTCAP with an FV estimate of Php1000/sh. We continue to like GTCAP as its portfolio of assets (banking, automotive, property, infrastructure, etc.) allows it to participate in the continued growth of the country. At its current price of Php499/sh, it is trading at just 3.7X 2025 earnings. Discount to NAV also remains high at 60%.

   Denise Joaquin

March 31, 2025. Cutting FV estimate to Php11.30/sh but maintaining BUY due to steep discount on valuations. We are cutting our FV estimate on WLCON to Php11.30/sh from Php17.10/sh previously as we reduce our net income forecasts for FY25 and FY26 by 33.8% and 30.0%, respectively. This follows our lower revenue and GPM forecasts as we expect demand in the home improvement retail industry remaining challenged - evidenced by the declining number of approved building permits across the country and the muted performance of take-up sales among listed property developers. Our forecasts imply an 11.5% y/y decline in net income for FY25, reflecting expansion-related opex weighing on profitability. However, we anticipate a strong earnings recovery of 17.0% y/y in FY26, driven by easing inflation and lower borrowing rates which should bolster consumer spending. Despite the cut in our estimates, we maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock as we believe that valuations remain deeply discounted. We estimate that WLCON is trading at only 13.1X 2025E P/E, versus our target multiple of 20.7X.

   Paolo Miguel Manansala

March 26, 2025. Reiterating BUY rating. We are realigning our estimates for 2025 and 2026 amid CNVRG’s recent performance. We have slightly raised our EBITDA forecast by 1.7% to Php28.5Bil for FY25 and by 1.6% to Php31.2Bil for FY26. We believe CNVRG will be able to manage the rise in expenses associated with subscriber acquisition as it improves margins through topline growth and stringent cost management measures. As a result, our net income forecast for both 2025 and 2026 increased by 0.6% to Php12.8Bil and Php13.9Bil, respectively. We are maintaining our BUY rating for CNVRG with an FV estimate of Php25.0/sh (+0.4%). We continue to like CNVRG for being a pure play on fiber broadband and for the strong growth of its postpaid and prepaid fiber businesses. Moreover, it continues to build more facilities and expand to remote and underserved areas, helping fuel subscriber growth. At its current price, capital appreciation potential is still significant at 31.6%.

   Richard Lañeda, CFA

March 18, 2025. Maintain HOLD. We reduce our fair value estimate from Php0.88 to Php0.84 as we factor in the high-than-expected net debt balance at the end of 2024. We maintain our HOLD rating on FLI as the upside is limited to 13%. We continue to see good strides in FLI’s residential business and the office leasing segment looks to have bottomed out. Nevertheless, we remain neutral on FLI given that their return on equity of 4.4% is lower than their cost of capital of 8.7%.

   George Ching

March 18, 2025. Maintaining BUY rating on DMC. We have a BUY rating on DMC with a FV estimate of Php14.6/sh. We are maintaining our BUY rating on DMC. DMC is trading at FY25 P/E of 7.5X, below its historical P/E of 11.2X. Based on its actual 2024 cash dividend of Php1.20/ sh, this provides a very high dividend yield of 10.5%. Upside to our FV estimate is also very high at 27%.

   George Ching

March 17, 2025. Maintaining HOLD rating We have a HOLD rating on AEV with a FV estimate of Php62.8/sh. We continue to like AEV given the prospects of its power subsidiary AP. AEV is also well positioned to benefit from the country’s growing infrastructure programs owing to its investment in Republic cement as well as its strong balance sheet and excellent track record in acquiring businesses. However, key business units such as Republic Cement continue to be negatively affected the weakness in overall demand, cost inflation as well as elevated interest rates.

   George Ching

March 17, 2025. Maintaining BUY rating on AP. We have a BUY rating on AP with a FV estimate of Php54.3/sh. We like AP as we believe that its long- term earnings growth outlook has improved following the ramp up of its renewable energy capacity expansion initiative. Furthermore, valuation is also cheap, trading at 10.4X FY25 P/E, compared to AP’s 10- year historical P/E of 13.7X. Based on its 2024 cash dividend of Php2.3/sh, this provides a decent dividend yield of 5.6%. The upside to our FV estimate is significant at 32%.

   George Ching

March 13, 2025. Maintaining HOLD rating. We have a HOLD rating on ACEN with a FV estimate of Php6.12/sh. We continue to like ACEN given the rapid growth of its power generation portfolio and its focus on renewable energy. From ~6,978W currently, the company plans to add ~ 2,000MW of capacity annually for the next 3 years. Upside to our FV estimate is significant at 110%. However, we believe that investor sentiment could remained subdued in the near term on concern over the potential of share overhang from the planned equity raising exercise.

   Richard Lañeda, CFA

March 11, 2025. Fair value estimate lowered to Php6.89. We are adjusting our fair value estimate from Php9.46 to Php6.89 after adjusting EBITDA and net income forecast lower. We maintain a BUY rating on BLOOM given the significant upside potential from the current price. We believe much of the downside risk in earnings. Note that the reason for the lower income was the big jump in depreciation and interest expense associated with Solaire North. On the EBITDA level, Solaire North is already accretive in its first eight month of operations.

   Paolo Miguel Manansala

March 07, 2025. Slightly upgrading estimates; Maintaining BUY rating. We have slightly upgraded our net income forecast for CEB by 2.0% to Php4.9Bil in 2025 and by 1.7% to Php5.5Bil in 2026, largely driven by a 2.0% increase in our revenue forecasts for both years. We anticipate a stronger 2025 for CEB driven by the strong demand for travel. However, we remain cautious given the risks previously discussed. Overall, our FV estimate increased by 2.3% to Php45.0/sh. With this, we are maintaining our BUY rating on CEB amid its strong outlook for travel and its leading position in the industry. Key risks involve a stronger dollar, uncertainty on fuel prices and the highly cyclical nature of the business. At the current price, capital appreciation remains significant at 41.2%