Alerts

   Justin Richmond Cheng, CFA

November 04, 2021. Maintain HOLD rating. We continue to like CNPF for its resilient operations, new product innovations, and proven track record of growing revenues and profits. However, we are maintaining our HOLD rating on CNPF with a FV estimate of Php28.6/sh. At its current price of Php27.5/sh, the stock is already fairly valued. We recommend clients to wait for dips near Php24.9/sh before buying the stock.

   Adrian Alexander Yu

November 04, 2021. GLO fairly valued with Mynt’s US$2Bil valuation, Maintaining HOLD rating. We are maintaining our HOLD rating on GLO with an FV estimate of Php2,900/sh. Note that after the recent fundraising round, Mynt is now valued at approximately US$2Bil or Php100Bil. Assuming that GLO’s ownership interest in Mynt falls to 35%, GLO’s stake in the fintech company would amount to a Php35Bil valuation. This translates to around Php260/sh or 9% of our current FV estimate. Thus, taking into account the full business of Mynt based on its US$2Bil valuation, we believe that the GLO is fairly valued at its current price of Php3,150/sh.

   Frances Rolfa Nicolas

November 03, 2021. Maintain BUY rating. In light of these, we are slightly increasing our gross margin forecast for 2021 to 39.0% and lowering our operating expenses estimate by 3.4%. These increased our 2021 net income forecast by 28.7% to Php1.5Bil. Accordingly, we are maintaining our FV estimate of Php1.70/sh and BUY rating on CHP. Despite rising costs, we remain optimistic on the construction industry’s recovery as the government ramps up infrastructure building and as property firms resume their deferred projects this year. Moreover, at its current price of Php1.24/sh, upside potential to our FV estimate remains significant at 37%.

   Adrian Alexander Yu

November 03, 2021. Reducing estimates on lower GPM, maintaining BUY. Following the lower-thanexpected 3Q21 earnings, we are reducing our 2021 and 2022 earnings forecast to account for higher costs from the global chip shortage and shipping bottlenecks. After factoring in our earnings adjustment, we reduced our FV estimate on IMI by 6.5% to Php10.0/sh from Php10.7/sh. Despite the earnings cut, we are maintaining our BUY recommendation on IMI. We continue to like IMI’s long-term plans to pursue more projects in fast growing industries such as the EV market and renewable energy space.

   George Ching

In light of the increase in our earnings forecast for the coal mining business, we are raising our FY21 earnings estimate for SCC by 23% to Php13.3Bil. We are also raising our FV estimate on SCC by 1.9% to Php35.2/sh. We are maintaining our BUY rating on SCC. We like SCC given that we believe that earnings have bottomed out in 2020(with 9M21 earnings increasing by 244% y/y following a 66% decline in 2020 due to the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic). Despite the 74% increase in SCC’s share price in the YTD period, the stock is still extremely cheap. It is trading at 8.6X FY22 P/E. compared to 17X FY22E P/E of domestic peers and its 10 year historical P/E of 11.6X. Even At our Php35.2/sh FV estimate, SCC is trading at 2022 P/E of 12.6X, nearly at par with its historical P/E. Based on its actual 2021 cash dividend of Php3/sh, this provides a very high dividend yield of 11.5%. Upside to our FV estimate is also very high at 46.6%.

   Adrian Alexander Yu

October 5, 2021. Increasing FV estimate from 2022 rollover, reiterate BUY rating We are raising our FV estimate on TEL by 11.5% to Php2,030/sh from Php1,820/sh after rolling over our estimates to 2022 and revising our earnings estimates upward on PayMaya. However, note that the complete business of PayMaya is not yet fully priced in our FV estimate, so there is still potential upside risk. Despite the share price rising by almost 35% in the past month, we are still maintaining our BUY rating on the company because of the strong growth in its core business and potential upside risk in PayMaya. At its current price of Php1,693/sh, capital appreciation potential is attractive at 20.0% with a dividend yield of 4.7%.

   Justin Richmond Cheng, CFA

October 07, 2021. Reiterate BUY rating. Following the changes in our earnings forecast, we raised our FV estimate to Php11.4/sh. We reiterate our BUY rating on DNL. We like DNL as the company is in prime position to capitalize on the growing popularity of the health and wellness trends. The company’s upcoming plant expansion will also help DNL cater to the strong export demand for its products without sacrificing its ability to supply its existing customers. Finally, the company remains relatively resilient to rising input costs thanks to its strong pricing power and well-diversified portfolio of products with high margin specialty products accounting for 60% of the total.

   Frances Rolfa Nicolas

October 13, 2021. Maintain HOLD rating. Accordingly, we are reducing our FV estimate to Php51.0/sh. We think that the company’s recovery still has a long way to go. While we are hopeful that more people will start travelling in the last quarter of the year, additional headwinds are mounting such as rising jet fuel prices, weakening of the Philippine peso, and possible reimposition of travel restrictions domestically and abroad. As such, we are maintaining our HOLD rating on CEB.

   John Martin Luciano, CFA

October 13, 2021. Reiterate BUY. We reiterate our BUY rating on MBT with an FV estimate of Php98/sh based on 1.25X 2022E P/BV. We continue to like MBT as it has a) lower exposure to riskier segments, with consumer accounting for 21% of total loans, b) high NPL coverage ratio at 179%, c) and better access to liquidity given its large CASA deposit. The bank has also booked adequate provisioning over the past several quarters which should give the bank some leeway in case there will be an uptick in non-performing loans following the re-imposition of enhanced community quarantine this year. At its current price, the bank is trading at a steep discount vs its peers at 0.6X 2022E P/BV (vs BDO’s and BPI’s 1.2X) despite being better capitalized and having higher NPL cover ratio.

   John Martin Luciano, CFA

October 25, 2021. Maintain BUY. We are slightly reducing our FV estimate to Php112/sh based on a 1.60X 2022E P/BV. We expect BPI to be one of the major beneficiaries of the economic growth after the effect of pandemic eases given its extensive branch network, substantial low-cost deposit (CASA ratio of 80.1%), and high CET1 ratio (16.8% vs the BSP’s 10.5% minimum). Moreover, the bank has also been front-loading its provisions which should allow the bank to move forward quicker once economic growth resumes.