Alerts

   Denise Joaquin

May 16, 2025. Lowering estimates in light of higher interest expense and lower other income. As a result, our net income forecasts dropped by 6.8% and 4.1% for FY25 and FY26, respectively. That said, we are still maintaining our BUY rating on the stock with an FV of Php300/sh. We believe the company’s long-term growth prospects remain intact, supported by strong domestic momentum and the ongoing recovery of its international operations. At its current price of Php243.2/sh, we estimate that JFC is trading at 26.2X 2025E P/E, compared to its 5-year median P/E of 30.9X.

   Charmaine Co

May 16, 2025. Realigning estimates, maintain BUY. We are maintaining our BUY rating on MBT with an FV estimate of Php92.6/ sh, based on 1.0x 2025E P/B. We remain optimistic about MBT as it is wellpositioned to benefit from the country’s economic growth. The bank’s strong capital foundation and liquid balance sheet allow it to steadily grow its loan portfolio and maintain dividend distributions. MBT offers one of the highest dividend yields across the banking sector at ~6.9%. The bank is also relatively undervalued compared to its peers as it trades at 0.85x P/B, well below BDO’s 1.35x and BPI’s 1.5x, even considering ROE differences.

   Richard Lañeda, CFA

May, 15, 2025. We maintain a BUY rating on BLOOM given the significant upside potential from the current price. We believe much of the downside risk in earnings has been priced in. Note that the reason for the lower income was the big jump in depreciation and interest expense associated with Solaire North. On the EBITDA level, Solaire North is already accretive to BLOOM has increased its mass gaming market share to offset the declining VIP segment. Upside risk in earnings going forward would come from its online gaming segment which has the potential to be very profitable if executed property as evidenced by DigiPlus.

   George Ching

May 15, 2025. Reducing estimates, maintaining BUY rating on DMC. In light of the reduction in our estimates for SCC, we lowered our FY25E net income forecast for DMC by 12% to Php18.2Bil. We are also lowering our FV estimate for DMC by 7.1% to Php13.56/sh. Despite the reduction in our estimates, we are maintaining our BUY rating on DMC. DMC is trading at FY25 P/E of 7.8X, below its historical P/E of 11.2X. Based on its actual 2024 cash dividend of Php1.20/sh, this provides a very high dividend yield of 11.4%. Upside to our FV estimate is also very high at 29%

   Charmaine Co

May 14, 2025. We maintain our BUY rating on BDO with an FV estimate of Php181.0/sh, based on 1.50x 2025E P/B. We continue to favor the bank as we believe that BDO, as the largest bank in the Philippines, is well-positioned to capture growth opportunity as the local economy expands. Its extensive and still growing branch network, as well as its strong ties to the SM Group should provide a significant advantage. BDO’s robust and liquid balance sheet, coupled with healthy capital ratios, also gives the bank the flexibility to pursue new avenues of growth. While challenges to NIM continue amid the BSP’s rate cutting cycle, we expect margin compression to be mitigated by changes in the bank’s asset mix and the positive impact of the RRR reduction. Additionally, we see potential earnings upside from easing credit costs and the booking of trading gains.

   Richard Lañeda, CFA

May 14, 2025. Reducing FV estimate to Php827, maintain BUY. We are reducing our fair value estimate for AC to Php827 from Php896 as we factored in the reduction in fair value estimates of ALI and ACEN. We maintain our BUY rating on AC given the huge upside to our fair value estimate.

   Paolo Miguel Manansala

May 14, 2025. Maintaining BUY rating despite global trade headwinds. We are maintaining our BUY rating on ICT with an FV estimate of Php 440/sh. We believe that the current forecast adequately represents current global headwinds and upside. We continue to like ICT for its resilient portfolio and continuous expansion of terminals. However, moving forward, we note that ICT may experience some downward pressure in price due to further developments or escalation of the ongoing trade war by the US.

   George Ching

May 14, 2025. Maintaining HOLD rating. We have a HOLD rating on AEV with a FV estimate of Php61.1/sh. We continue to like AEV given the prospects of its power subsidiary AP. AEV is also well positioned to benefit from the country’s growing infrastructure programs owing to its investment in Republic cement as well as its strong balance sheet and excellent track record in acquiring businesses. However, key business units such as Republic Cement continue to be negatively affected the weakness in overall demand, cost inflation as well as elevated interest rates.

   George Ching

May 14, 2025. Maintaining BUY rating on AP. We have a BUY rating on AP with a FV estimate of Php54.3/sh. We like AP as we believe that its long- term earnings growth outlook has improved following the ramp up of its renewable energy capacity expansion initiative. Furthermore, valuation is also cheap, trading at 9.4X FY25 P/E, compared to AP’s 10- year historical P/E of 13.7X. Based on its 2025 cash dividend of Php2.35/sh, this provides a high dividend yield of 6.4%. The upside to our FV estimate is significant at 47%.

   Richard Lañeda, CFA

May 13, 2025. Maintain HOLD. We maintain our HOLD rating on FLI with a fair value estimate of Php0.84. We continue to see good strides in FLI’s residential business and the office leasing segment looks to have bottomed out. Nevertheless, we remain neutral on FLI given that their return on equity of 4.4% is lower than their cost of capital of 8.7%.