Alerts

   George Ching

May 13, 2025. Maintaining BUY rating. We have a BUY rating on FPH with a FV estimate of Php165.8/sh. We are maintaining our BUY rating on FPH. Given FPH’s 68% ownership in FGEN, we view FPH as a cheaper way to own FGEN. FPH is trading at a huge 57% discount to its market based NAV of Php133/sh. Based on FPH’s market price of Php57/sh, upside to our FV estimate is significant at 189%.

   Denise Joaquin

May 09, 2025. Reiterate BUY rating. We reiterate our BUY rating on DNL with FV estimate of Php8.10/sh. Despite nearterm uncertainties stemming from potential second-order effects of escalating trade tensions, we think DNL’s long-term prospects offer an attractive runway for growth. We believe DNL is well-positioned to scale its export business over the coming years, supported by the significant capacity expansion at its Batangas facility and growing overseas demand for coco-based products. We also like the stock given the improving outlook for Chemrez in light of the energy department’s renewed push to hike the minimum biodiesel blend requirement through 2026.

   Richard Lañeda, CFA

May 09, 2025. Maintain BUY with FV estimate of Php3.34. We maintain our BUY rating on MEG as share are undervalued. We have seen steady improvements in its recurring businesses – office leasing, retail leasing, and hotels. Additional inventory, improvements in lease rates, and healthy occupancy levels have helped grow its rental revenues, while hotels have capitalized on increased travel and MICE activities. Based on our estimates, MEG investment properties alone are worth around Php4.29 per share. The residential sector admittedly is a concern given the declining take-up sales but on a brighter note, MEG has Php150 Bil in unbooked revenues which has allowed them to stay on a growth trajectory in terms of revenues.

   George Ching

May 09, 2025. Reducing estimates, maintaining HOLD rating In light of the reduction in our earnings forecast and adjusting for ACEN’s higher end-FY24 net debt level, we are lowering our FV estimate on ACEN by 31% to Php4.24. We are maintaining our HOLD rating for ACEN. We continue to like ACEN given the rapid growth of its power generation portfolio and its focus on renewable energy. From ~6,978W currently, the company is operationalizing ~800MW of capacity this year and is targeting to achieve 20Gwh of capacity by 2030. Furthermore, upside to our FV estimate is significant at 61%. However, we believe that investor sentiment could remained subdued in the near term on concern over the potential of share overhang from the planned equity raising exercise.

   George Ching

May 09, 2025. Maintaining BUY rating. We have a BUY rating on NIKL with a FV estimate of Php4.40/sh. We remain positive on the long-term outlook for nickel due to the rising EV battery demand. In addition, we believe that NIKL’s expansion of its RE power generation business comes at an opportune time as NIKL leverages on the strong cash flow generation of its nickel mining business to diversify into other sectors. At its current price of Php2.55/sh, upside to our FV estimate is at 72.8%.

   Richard Lañeda, CFA

May 08, 2025. Maintain BUY with FV estimate of Php1,000. We maintain our BUY rating on SM with a fair value estimate of Php1,000. While we remain cautious on the residential segment of SMPH, we believe current prices already factor in a significant downside risk. In addition, SMPH’s mall business is robust and growing, lending support to the current residential business. SM also has exposure to the banking sector through BDO and CBC which continue to perform quite well as they grow their loan portfolio. Overall we see value in SM at its current price. The company’s share buyback program should also support the price from further downside risk.

   Richard Lañeda, CFA

May 08, 2025. Maintain BUY with FV estimate of Php19.90. We are maintaining a BUY rating on RLC given the significant upside from the current price of Php12.20. We view RLC a value play given its deep discount to our NAV estimate of Php36.73 come from its investment properties (malls, offices, hotels). RLC’s investment portfolio account for 78.8% of its gross asset value, 17.7% from landbank, and 3.6% from residential. Even if we totally discount its residential segment and keep the target discount to NAV of 45%, the FV estimate will still be 55.7% higher than the current price.

   Richard Lañeda, CFA

May 08, 2025. Maintain BUY with FV estimate of Php38.60. We are adjusting our fair value estimate from Php39.30 to Php38.60 as we factor in the higher-than-expected net debt level at the end of 1Q25. We maintain our BUY rating given the huge upside from the current price. We still believe that ALI is in the best position to navigate the current downtrend in the residential segment given its relatively lower exposure to the mid-income condominium segment in Metro Manila and strong demand for its commercial and industrial lots. Meanwhile, the malls segment remains robust amidst the ongoing mall redevelopments, and the office leasing revenues continues to improve despite a challenging operating environment.

   Richard Lañeda, CFA

May 08, 2025. Maintain BUY with FV estimate of Php38.10. We maintain our BUY rating on SMPH as our more conservative fair value estimate still has a 57.8% from the current price of SMPH. Note that SMPH is still the largest mall operator in the Philippines despite facing challenges in the residential segment. SMPH’s malls have been very resilient and will continue to serve as the anchor for its revenues, earnings, and valuation. If we remove the value of SMPH’s residential segment in our valuation, our fair value come out to Php33.10, which is still 37% higher than the current price.

   George Ching

May 08, 2025. Maintaining BUY rating. We have a BUY rating on FGEN with a FV estimate of Php32.15/sh. We continue like FGEN given its relatively stable cash flow since bulk of its capacity is contracted. Furthermore, with the Department of Energy’s moratorium on new coal power plants, this increases competitiveness of FGEN’s gas and renewables plants, and improve the feasibility of FGEN’s LNG regasification project which will enable its gas plants to remain viable after the depletion of the Malampaya gas field. At FGEN’s market price of Php16.3/sh., upside to our FV estimate is at 97%.