Alerts

   George Ching

November 07, 2022. Maintaining BUY rating on SCC. In light of the increase in our FY23E average coal ASP assumption, we are raising our FY23E earnings forecast by 29% to Php29.3Bil. Following the rolling forward of our estimates to FY23 and the increase in our earnings forecast, we are raising our FV estimate of SCC by 5.1% to Php50.25/sh. We are maintaining our BUY rating on SCC. We like SCC given that we believe that the company is set to post record- high earnings this year due to the increase in coal prices. Despite the 58% increase in SCC’s share price in the YTD period, the stock is still cheap. It is trading at 3.4X FY22 P/E compared to 17X FY22E P/E of domestic peers and its 10 year historical P/E of 11.6X. Based on its actual 2022 cash dividend of Php5/sh, this provides a very high dividend yield of 14.8%. Upside to our FV estimate is at 48.7%.

   Frances Rolfa Nicolas

Rolling our estimates, maintain BUY rating- November 4, 2022 Accordingly, we are increasing our FV estimate to Php1.0/sh despite the lower estimates as we roll over our assumptions to 2023. We think that the increasing input costs and weak demand would keep the company’s margins muted. Nonetheless, we think that this is already priced in given the decline in the company’s share price. At its current price of Php0.67/sh, upside potential to our new FV estimate is significant at 49.5%. Hence, we are maintaining our BUY rating on CHP.

   George Ching

Upgrading to BUY - November 2, 2022 We are raising our FV estimate on MER by 4.8% to Php395.3/sh following the rolling over of our estimates to FY23. We are also upgrading our rating on MER from to BUY from HOLD. We continue to like MER as its earnings is set to exceed pre-pandemic level this year as power demand continue to recover with the reopening of the economy. Moreover, MER’s valuation is becoming increasingly attractive after the 21% decline from its peak in March, underperforming the PSEI’s 18.5% decline from its peak. MER’s is currently trading at 14X 2023 P/E, below its 10-year historical average of 17.5X. Based on MER’s current market price of Php301.4/sh, upside to our FV estimate is significant at 31.2%.

   Denise Joaquin

October 27, 2022. Raising FV estimate to Php31.7/sh; maintain HOLD rating. We are raising our FV estimate on WLCON to Php31.7/sh from Php25.2/sh as a result of the changes in our forecasts and after rolling over our estimates to 2023. After factoring in our higher topline and gross margin assumptions, our net income forecasts for FY22 and FY23 increased by 6.2% and 6.0%, respectively. Despite the upgrade in our estimates, we maintain our HOLD rating on the stock due to current valuations. At its current price of Php28.6/sh, the stock is already trading at 26X 2023E P/E, a significant premium to the median 7X 2023E P/E of other retailers. Upside potential relative to our FV estimate is also limited at 10.8%.

   Charles William Ang, CFA

Upgrading to BUY- October 21, 2022 We are upgrading our FV estimate on BPI to Php110.00/sh (based on 1.4X 2023E P/BV) as we rollover our estimates to 2023. We are also upgrading our rating from a HOLD to a BUY. We like BPI as it stands to benefit from the continued recovery of the economy as well as the rising interest rate environment. BPI’s healthy NPL ratio and high NPL cover also allow the bank to more aggressively pursue this opportunity. At its current price of Php92.60/sh, upside to our FV estimate is at 18.79%.

   Denise Joaquin

October 21, 2022. Realigning estimates; maintain BUY rating. We are fine-tuning our forecasts on PGOLD following our recent meeting with management. We lowered our topline estimates for FY22 and FY23 by 7.0% and 6.9%, respectively. This was partly offset by our higher gross margin assumption following better-than-expected margins for the first half of the year. After factoring in our adjustments, our net income forecasts fell by 3.4% for FY22 and 8.9% for FY23. As a result, our FV estimate decreased to Php50.9/sh from Php52.8/sh previously.

   April Lynn L. Tan, CFA

October 20, 2022. Upgrading to BUY rating. We are upgrading our rating on CNVRG to BUY with a FV estimate of Php24.60/sh. Based on its current price, the stock is very cheap, trading at only 6.5X 2022E EV/EBITDA with an attractive upside of 96.8%. A successful launch of the prepaid fiber segment could add to its future earnings while its healthy balance sheet provides broader financing options. However, near term sentiment for the stock is being negatively affected by concerns on subscriber growth, and its potential removal from the MSCI index in November. This could lead to the stock’s lackluster performance in the short term.

   Frances Rolfa Nicolas

October 19, 2022. We currently have a HOLD rating on EAGLE with an FV estimate of Php15.20/sh.

   Richard Lañeda, CFA

September 27, 2022. Factoring in the higher fair value estimate for Globe, we raise our fair value estimate for AC from Php848.00 to Php857.00. We maintain our BUY rating on AC given the significant upside potential from the current market price of Php670.00. In addition to this, the market NAV of AC is currently at Php801.00, which is 19.6% higher than the current market price of AC.

   George Ching

Maintain HOLD rating- September 23, 2022 We have a HOLD rating on AEV with a FV estimate of 53/sh. We continue to like AEV given the expansion plans of its power subsidiary AP. AEV is also well positioned to benefit from the country’s growing infrastructure programs owing to its investment in republic cement as well as its strong balance sheet and excellent track record in acquiring businesses. However, AEV’s share price has increased by 6.5% in the YTD period, outperforming the PSEI’s 11.5% declined. Based on its current market price of Php58/sh, there is no more upside to our FV estimate.