Alerts

   April Lynn L. Tan, CFA

September 13, 2022. We reiterate our HOLD rating on TEL with an FV estimate of Php1,850/sh. We continue to like TEL due to its market leadership in the fixed broadband segment and its fast-growing enterprise segment. Dividend yield is also projected to reach 7.5% this year, thanks to the Php9Bil special dividends from the tower sale. However, sentiment could stay negative given concerns that the market for postpaid fiber broadband is already maturing given the slowing subscriber growth of competitors CNVRG and GLO. Capital appreciation potential is also limited at 9% based on TEL’s current share price of Php1,698/sh. Wait for more significant pullbacks to buy the stock.

   George Ching

September 06, 2022. Reducing estimates, maintaining BUY rating. In light of our lower average nickel price assumptions, we are reducing our 2022E earnings forecast for NIKL by 15.1% to Php10.6Bil, and our 2023E forecast by 14.4% to Php10.7Bil. We are also lowering our FV estimate for NIKL by 10.7% to Php6.9/sh. We are maintaining our BUY rating on NIKL. While we believe that nickel prices could remain weak in the short term, we continue to like NIKL given that long term nickel prices will continue to be supported by the ongoing Indonesian nickel ore export ban, as well as the proposal by the Indonesian government to impose a levy on the export of some nickel products. We also remain positive on the long term outlook for nickel due to the rising EV battery demand. Furthermore, we believe that NIKL’s expansion of its RE power generation business comes at an opportune time given the strong cash flow generation of its nickel mining business, as well as the tightening of power supply in the country. At its current price of Php5.68/sh, upside to our FV estimate is significant at 21.5%.

   Carlos Matthew De Leon

Upgrading to BUY- August 30, 2022 After factoring in the said changes, we are raising our FV estimate from Php213/sh to Php284/sh, translating to a 19.8% upside from the current price, and upgrading our rating from HOLD to BUY. We believe that JFC remains in position to benefit from the further easing of restrictions and the continued recovery of the economy. Moreover, we expect eased restrictions to drive recovery in the China segment. Nevertheless, mobility shocks, supply uncertainty, and weakened spending amidst a looming economic slowdown in the US and China remain as key risks moving forward.

   Frances Rolfa Nicolas

Maintain HOLD- August 25, 2022 In light of the weaker-than-expected 2Q22 results, we are reducing our revenues estimate by 1.7%. Moreover, we are increasing our net interest expense by 23.9%. These decreased our 2022 net income forecast by 13.4% to Php5.0Bil. Accordingly, we slightly lower our FV estimate to Php21.0/sh on MWC. We await the details of the East Zone’s next round of rate rebasing as this will determine the outlook of the company.

   Frances Rolfa Nicolas

   Frances Rolfa Nicolas

   Carlos Matthew De Leon

August 23, 2022. Maintain BUY. We currently have a BUY rating on MAXS with FV estimate of 8.45/sh and we will be reviewing our estimates given the stronger-than-expected 2Q22 results. We expect MAXS to benefit from the resumption of full-capacity dine-in amid eased restrictions and the seasonal increase in consumer spending this coming second half. A higher proportion of dine-in revenues should bode well for profitability while continued business optimizations and the benefit of a strong topline on operating leverage should be favorable for operating income. Nevertheless, mobility shocks due to the pandemic and elevated costs remain as potential headwinds moving forward.

   Denise Joaquin

Reducing estimates; maintain BUY. - - August 23, 202 In light of the weaker-than-expected results, we are reducing our forecasts on HOME. After factoring in our adjustments, our FV estimate decreased by 10.8% to Php7.4/sh from Php8.3/sh previously. Despite the cut in our estimates, we continue to like HOME for its long-term store network expansion strategy and initiatives for margin enhancement. At its current price of Php4.65/sh, HOME is trading at an attractive 13.8x 2022E P/E. Potential upside relative to our new FV estimate is also significant.

   Charles William Ang, CFA

August 22, 2022. Maintaining BUY rating. We currently have a BUY rating on GTCAP with and FV estimate of Php890/sh. At its current price of Php529.5, it is trading at 7.5X 2022E earnings, significantly below its historical average P/E of 14X. Current discount to NAV also remains near its historical high at 46%.

   April Lynn L. Tan, CFA

Reiterate HOLD rating on TEL and CNVRG and BUY rating on GLO